MCPInstall

cigar-butt-vs-great-business

用户在选择投资标的或商业模式时,纠结于"便宜买差企业"还是"合理价买好企业"。 语言信号:"这个便宜能不能捡"/"估值低是不是就值得买"/"贵的好公司值不值得买"/"便宜货有什么问题" 不适用于:已有明确投资方法论且不需要在两种风格间做选择的场景。

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Install

Works with every agent the skills CLI supports.

npx skills add https://github.com/kangarooking/buffett-letters-skill --skill cigar-butt-vs-great-business
  1. 01

    Install

    Run the command in your project. The CLI asks which agents to install for.

  2. 02

    Describe the task

    Ask your agent for something this skill covers. It loads cigar-butt-vs-great-business automatically when relevant.

  3. 03

    Review the result

    The agent follows the SKILL.md steps, scripts and references bundled with the skill.

SKILL.md

The instructions your agent reads when the skill is triggered.

雪茄蒂 vs 伟大企业

R — 原文 (Reading)

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." (1987) "We have made silk purses from silk, but never from a sow's ear." (1987)

I — 方法论骨架

从雪茄蒂到伟大企业的心路历程:

  • 雪茄蒂方法(Graham):捡起被抛弃的雪茄蒂,还能免费抽一口——问题是一次性的
  • 伟大企业方法(Munger影响):以合理价格买入优秀企业,让时间和复利为你工作
  • 差企业消耗你的时间、注意力和资本——即使买入价很低
  • 好企业会自我增长——需要极少的管理和额外资本
  • 巴菲特花了近20年才完成这个思维转变(1949→1967)

A1 — 书中的应用

案例: 伯克希尔纺织业

  • 问题: 便宜买入差企业(纺织业),持续投入资本
  • 使用: 典型的雪茄蒂错误——低价买入但行业衰退、需要持续资本投入
  • 结果: 巴菲特承认这是他最大的错误之一——"用丝绸做丝线钱包是我们能做到的最好,猪耳朵则不行"

案例: See's Candy(反面)

  • 使用: 以"合理"价格买入伟大企业——需要极少资本即可持续增长
  • 结果: 50年贡献$20亿+利润——证明伟大企业的复利力量远超雪茄蒂的"免费一口"

A2 — 触发场景

  1. 发现一个"很便宜"的公司,但业务质量差
  2. 一个优秀公司但估值看起来不便宜
  3. 在"价值陷阱"和"成长溢价"之间犹豫
  4. 反思自己的投资方法论是否需要进化

语言信号

  • "这个公司很便宜,能不能买?"
  • "PE只有3倍,是不是捡漏?"
  • "好公司太贵了,值不值得买?"
  • "便宜买差企业还是贵买好企业?"

与相邻 skill 的区分

  • 与 margin-of-safety 的区别:安全边际强调价格保护,本skill强调企业质量优先于价格
  • 与 economic-moat 的区别:护城河识别好企业,本skill是整体方法论的选择

E — 可执行步骤

  1. 做"猪耳测试"

    • 完成标准:这家企业即使管理得当,能变成伟大的企业吗?如果不能 → 放弃,不管多便宜
  2. 比较时间投入

    • 完成标准:持有这个投资需要你花多少时间管理?差企业消耗的注意力成本是否超过价格折扣?
  3. 计算"复利差距"

    • 完成标准:好企业10年后的内在价值增长 vs 差企业的一次性折扣——前者几乎总是远大于后者

B — 边界

  • 雪茄蒂方法并非完全无效——在极低价格下仍可获得一次性收益
  • "合理价格买好企业"的"合理"需要准确定义——不能是任何价格
  • 作者盲点:巴菲特早期用雪茄蒂方法赚到了第一桶金——没有雪茄蒂阶段可能没有后来的伟大企业阶段

相关 skills (阶段 3 填充)

  • depends-on: economic-moat, compounding-thinking
  • contrasts-with: margin-of-safety

审计信息

  • 验证通过: V1 ✓ / V2 ✓ / V3 ✓
  • 蒸馏时间: 2026-04-16

FAQ

What does the cigar-butt-vs-great-business skill do?

用户在选择投资标的或商业模式时,纠结于"便宜买差企业"还是"合理价买好企业"。 语言信号:"这个便宜能不能捡"/"估值低是不是就值得买"/"贵的好公司值不值得买"/"便宜货有什么问题" 不适用于:已有明确投资方法论且不需要在两种风格间做选择的场景。

How do I install cigar-butt-vs-great-business?

Run npx skills add https://github.com/kangarooking/buffett-letters-skill --skill cigar-butt-vs-great-business in your project. The skills CLI detects the agents you use and copies the skill into the right folder. For Claude Code you can also place the skill folder at ~/.claude/skills/cigar-butt-vs-great-business/ (personal) or .claude/skills/cigar-butt-vs-great-business/ (project).

Which AI agents can use cigar-butt-vs-great-business?

Any agent that supports the open Agent Skills format (a folder with a SKILL.md file), including Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, Windsurf, Cline, OpenCode and more.

Is cigar-butt-vs-great-business safe to install?

No partner security audit is available yet. Skills can run commands and scripts, so read the SKILL.md and any bundled files before installing.

Who maintains cigar-butt-vs-great-business?

It is published by kangarooking in kangarooking/buffett-letters-skill. It has 54 recorded installs.

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