
market-sizing
Estimate market size using TAM, SAM, and SOM with top-down and bottom-up approaches. Use when sizing a market opportunity, estimating addressable market, preparing for investor pitches, or evaluating market entry.
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Install
Works with every agent the skills CLI supports.
npx skills add https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills --skill market-sizing- 01
Install
Run the command in your project. The CLI asks which agents to install for.
- 02
Describe the task
Ask your agent for something this skill covers. It loads market-sizing automatically when relevant.
- 03
Review the result
The agent follows the SKILL.md steps, scripts and references bundled with the skill.
SKILL.md
The instructions your agent reads when the skill is triggered.
Estimate Market Size (TAM, SAM, SOM)
Purpose
Estimate the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for a product. Includes both top-down and bottom-up estimation approaches, growth projections, and key assumptions to validate.
Instructions
You are a strategic market analyst specializing in market sizing, opportunity assessment, and growth forecasting.
Input
Your task is to estimate the market size for $ARGUMENTS within the specified market constraints (geography, industry vertical, customer type, etc.).
If the user provides market research, industry reports, financial data, or competitor information, read and analyze them directly. Use web search to find current market data, industry reports, and growth projections.
Analysis Steps (Think Step by Step)
- Market Definition: Define the market boundaries — what problem space, which customer segments, what geography or constraints apply
- Top-Down Estimation: Start from total industry size and narrow to the relevant slice
- Bottom-Up Estimation: Build from unit economics (customers × price × frequency) to cross-validate
- SAM Scoping: Identify which portion of TAM is realistically serviceable given product capabilities, channels, and constraints
- SOM Estimation: Estimate achievable share in the next 1-3 years based on competitive position and go-to-market capacity
- Growth Projection: Forecast how TAM, SAM, and SOM may evolve over the next 2-3 years
- Assumption Mapping: Surface the key assumptions underlying each estimate
Output Structure
Market Definition
- Problem space and customer need
- Geographic and segment boundaries
- Key constraints or scoping decisions
TAM (Total Addressable Market)
- Top-down estimate with sources and reasoning
- Bottom-up estimate for cross-validation
- Reconciliation of the two approaches
- Current TAM value (annual revenue opportunity)
SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)
- Which portion of TAM the product can realistically serve
- Constraints: geography, language, channels, product capabilities, pricing tier
- SAM as percentage of TAM with reasoning
SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)
- Realistic share achievable in 1-3 years
- Basis: competitive position, go-to-market capacity, current traction
- SOM as percentage of SAM with reasoning
Market Summary Table
| Metric | Current Estimate | 2-3 Year Projection |
|---|---|---|
| TAM | ||
| SAM | ||
| SOM |
Growth Drivers & Trends
- Key factors that could expand or contract the market
- Technology, regulatory, demographic, or behavioral shifts
- Emerging segments or adjacent markets
Key Assumptions & Risks
- Critical assumptions behind each estimate (numbered)
- Confidence level for each (high / medium / low)
- How to validate the most uncertain assumptions
- What would materially change the estimates
Best Practices
- Always provide both top-down and bottom-up estimates to triangulate
- Use web search for current industry data, analyst reports, and market benchmarks
- Cite sources for market data — avoid unsupported numbers
- Be explicit about assumptions; label estimates vs. data
- Distinguish between value-based (revenue) and volume-based (users/units) sizing
- Consider currency and purchasing power parity for international markets
- Flag where estimates have wide confidence intervals
- Recommend specific data sources or research to sharpen estimates
Further Reading
FAQ
What does the market-sizing skill do?
Estimate market size using TAM, SAM, and SOM with top-down and bottom-up approaches. Use when sizing a market opportunity, estimating addressable market, preparing for investor pitches, or evaluating market entry.
How do I install market-sizing?
Run npx skills add https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills --skill market-sizing in your project. The skills CLI detects the agents you use and copies the skill into the right folder. For Claude Code you can also place the skill folder at ~/.claude/skills/market-sizing/ (personal) or .claude/skills/market-sizing/ (project).
Which AI agents can use market-sizing?
Any agent that supports the open Agent Skills format (a folder with a SKILL.md file), including Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, Windsurf, Cline, OpenCode and more.
Is market-sizing safe to install?
No partner security audit is available yet. Skills can run commands and scripts, so read the SKILL.md and any bundled files before installing.
Who maintains market-sizing?
It is published by phuryn in phuryn/pm-skills. It has 2,968 recorded installs.
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