I'm starting customer discovery for [business idea].
Help me document my hypotheses and design validation experiments.
Use Steve Blank's Customer Development methodology.

Here's what I've learned from [X] customer interviews: [summary]
Evaluate my progress against Customer Discovery criteria.
Should I proceed, pivot, or go back to more interviews?

I need to validate this hypothesis: [hypothesis]
Design a Customer Discovery experiment to test it.
What would prove it true? What would prove it false?

## Business Model Canvas Hypotheses

Before talking to customers, document what you BELIEVE to be true.
These are GUESSES until validated.

### Customer Hypotheses
| # | Hypothesis | Confidence | Evidence |
|---|------------|------------|----------|
| C1 | Our target customer is [WHO] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| C2 | They have this problem: [WHAT] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| C3 | The problem is severe because [WHY] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| C4 | They currently solve it by [HOW] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |

### Value Proposition Hypotheses
| # | Hypothesis | Confidence | Evidence |
|---|------------|------------|----------|
| V1 | Our solution provides [BENEFIT] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| V2 | Customers care about [FEATURE/OUTCOME] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| V3 | We're differentiated by [UNIQUE VALUE] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |

### Channel Hypotheses
| # | Hypothesis | Confidence | Evidence |
|---|------------|------------|----------|
| H1 | We can reach customers through [CHANNEL] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| H2 | Customer acquisition will cost [ESTIMATE] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |

### Revenue Hypotheses
| # | Hypothesis | Confidence | Evidence |
|---|------------|------------|----------|
| R1 | Customers will pay [PRICE] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| R2 | Revenue model: [TYPE] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| R3 | Lifetime value: [ESTIMATE] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |

## Hypothesis Prioritization Matrix

Prioritize by RISK and IMPACT:

| Hypothesis | If WRONG, Impact | Current Confidence | Priority |
|------------|------------------|-------------------|----------|
| [H1] | Fatal/Major/Minor | Low/Med/High | P1/P2/P3 |
| [H2] | Fatal/Major/Minor | Low/Med/High | P1/P2/P3 |

### Priority Rules:
- P1: Fatal if wrong + Low confidence → Validate FIRST
- P2: Major if wrong + Low/Med confidence → Validate SOON
- P3: Minor if wrong OR High confidence → Validate LATER

### Your P1 Hypotheses (Validate These First):
1. ________________________________
2. ________________________________
3. ________________________________

These are your "leap of faith" assumptions.

## Experiment Design Template

### Hypothesis Being Tested:
"We believe [CUSTOMER SEGMENT] has [PROBLEM] and would [BEHAVIOR]."

### Experiment Type:
- [ ] Customer Interviews (Problem Discovery)
- [ ] Solution Interviews (Solution Validation)
- [ ] Landing Page Test (Demand Validation)
- [ ] Concierge MVP (Solution Validation)
- [ ] Smoke Test (Demand Validation)

### Success Criteria:
**Validated if:** [Specific, measurable outcome]
**Invalidated if:** [Specific, measurable outcome]

Example:
- Validated: 8+ of 10 customers describe this exact problem unprompted
- Invalidated: Fewer than 5 of 10 mention this problem

### Sample Size:
- Minimum: [Number] customers
- Target segment: [Description]

### Data to Collect:
1.
2.
3.

### Timeline:
- Start: [Date]
- End: [Date]
- Go/No-Go Decision: [Date]

## Customer Discovery Interview Framework

### PHASE 1: Problem Discovery (First 5-10 interviews)

**Goal:** Understand the problem space, NOT pitch solutions

**Interview Structure:**
1. **Context** (5 min): Their role, background, day-to-day
2. **Problem Exploration** (15 min): Deep dive into the problem area
3. **Existing Solutions** (5 min): What they use today
4. **Impact** (5 min): How the problem affects them
5. **Wrap-up** (5 min): Referrals, next steps

**Key Questions:**
- "Tell me about your biggest challenge with [area]..."
- "Walk me through the last time you dealt with [problem]..."
- "What solutions have you tried? What worked/didn't work?"
- "How much time/money does this cost you?"
- "If this magically disappeared, what would change?"

**DO NOT:**
- Pitch your solution
- Ask leading questions
- Talk more than 30% of the time
- Ask "would you use/pay for..."

### PHASE 2: Solution Discovery (Next 5-10 interviews)

**Goal:** Test if your solution addresses validated problems

**Only proceed to Phase 2 if:**
- [ ] You've talked to 10+ potential customers
- [ ] Clear problem patterns emerged
- [ ] Problems are severe and frequent enough
- [ ] Customers are actively seeking solutions

**Solution Interview Structure:**
1. **Recap** (3 min): Confirm the problem you heard
2. **Solution Demo** (10 min): Show concept/prototype
3. **Reaction** (10 min): Their honest feedback
4. **Commitment** (5 min): Would they try/buy/refer?

**Key Questions:**
- "Does this solve the problem you described?"
- "What's missing?"
- "What would you pay for this?"
- "Would you be willing to pilot this?"
- "Who else should see this?"

## Customer Discovery Scorecard

### Problem Validation

| Criteria | Threshold | Your Result | Pass? |
|----------|-----------|-------------|-------|
| # of interviews completed | 10+ | | Y/N |
| % who confirmed the problem unprompted | 70%+ | | Y/N |
| Problem severity (1-10 avg) | 7+ | | Y/N |
| Already spending money on solutions | 50%+ | | Y/N |
| Actively seeking alternatives | 30%+ | | Y/N |

**Problem Validated:** All Y → Proceed to Solution Validation
**Problem NOT Validated:** Any N → Pivot or dig deeper

### Solution Validation

| Criteria | Threshold | Your Result | Pass? |
|----------|-----------|-------------|-------|
| # of solution interviews | 10+ | | Y/N |
| Said "this solves my problem" | 70%+ | | Y/N |
| Willing to try/pilot | 50%+ | | Y/N |
| Willing to pay (some amount) | 30%+ | | Y/N |
| Gave commitment (deposit, LOI, intro) | 3+ people | | Y/N |

**Solution Validated:** All Y → Proceed to MVP
**Solution NOT Validated:** Any N → Iterate or pivot

### Decision Framework

## Customer Discovery Learning Log

### Round [#] Summary

**Dates:** [Start] - [End]
**Interviews Conducted:** [#]
**Customer Segments Covered:** [List]

### Validated Hypotheses ✅
| Hypothesis | Evidence | Confidence Now |
|------------|----------|----------------|
| [H1] | [Quotes/Data] | High |

### Invalidated Hypotheses ❌
| Hypothesis | Evidence | Next Step |
|------------|----------|-----------|
| [H2] | [Quotes/Data] | Pivot to... |

### Surprises / New Insights 🔍
| Insight | Implication |
|---------|-------------|
| [Learning] | [What this means] |

### Updated Business Model
[What changed based on learnings]

### Next Validation Round
| Hypothesis to Test | Experiment | Timeline |
|--------------------|------------|----------|
| [H3] | [Method] | [Dates] |

Opening: "I'm researching how mid-size companies handle employee onboarding.
Not selling anything - just learning. Mind if I ask some questions?"

Problem Exploration:
1. "When you hired your last employee, walk me through the onboarding process..."
2. "What took the most time?"
3. "Where do things typically go wrong?"
4. "Tell me about a time onboarding didn't go well..."

Current State:
5. "What tools or systems are you using for this?"
6. "What do you like about your current process?"
7. "What's frustrating about it?"

Impact:
8. "How does onboarding quality affect employee retention?"
9. "If you could wave a magic wand, what would change?"

Close:
10. "Who else should I talk to about this?"
11. "Can I follow up in a few weeks to share what I'm learning?"

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                 SOLUTION FAILED                          │
│                                                          │
│  Is the problem still validated?                         │
│  └── YES → Solution Pivot (keep problem, change solution)│
│                                                          │
│  Were some customers excited?                            │
│  └── YES → Segment Pivot (narrow to excited segment)     │
│                                                          │
│  Did feedback suggest different problem?                 │
│  └── YES → Problem Pivot (keep customer, find new problem)│
│                                                          │
│  Is there any signal at all?                             │
│  └── NO → Consider stopping or major pivot               │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

## Before Starting Customer Discovery

### Preparation
- [ ] Business Model Canvas hypotheses documented
- [ ] P1 hypotheses identified (highest risk)
- [ ] Target customer segment defined
- [ ] Interview questions drafted
- [ ] 15+ potential interviews scheduled

### Mindset
- [ ] Committed to learning, not selling
- [ ] Ready to hear "your idea is wrong"
- [ ] Willing to pivot based on evidence
- [ ] No code written yet (or willing to throw away)

### Resources
- [ ] 2-4 weeks allocated for discovery
- [ ] Note-taking system ready
- [ ] Team aligned on validation criteria

## Customer Discovery Interview Log

| # | Date | Name | Company | Segment | Problem Confirmed? | Solution Fit? | Commitment? | Key Quote |
|---|------|------|---------|---------|-------------------|---------------|-------------|-----------|
| 1 | | | | | Y/N | Y/N/NA | | |
| 2 | | | | | Y/N | Y/N/NA | | |
| 3 | | | | | Y/N | Y/N/NA | | |

### Running Totals
- Interviews completed: __/15
- Problem confirmed: __%
- Solution fit (if applicable): __%
- Commitments received: __

## Customer Discovery Decision Point

**Date:** _______________
**Total Interviews:** _______________
**Hypothesis Being Tested:** _________________________________

### Evidence Summary

| Metric | Target | Actual | Pass? |
|--------|--------|--------|-------|
| Problem confirmation rate | 70%+ | | |
| Average severity score | 7+/10 | | |
| Currently paying for alternatives | 50%+ | | |
| Solution fit (if tested) | 70%+ | | |
| Concrete commitments | 3+ | | |

### Strongest Evidence FOR:
1.
2.
3.

### Strongest Evidence AGAINST:
1.
2.
3.

### Decision

- [ ] **PROCEED:** Build MVP / Start selling
- [ ] **ITERATE:** More interviews needed, adjust approach
- [ ] **PIVOT:** Change [customer/problem/solution]
- [ ] **STOP:** No viable market here

### If Proceeding, Next Steps:
1.
2.
3.

### If Pivoting, New Hypothesis:

name: customer-discovery
category: validation
subcategory: methodology
version: 1.0
author: MKTG Skills
source_expert: Steve Blank
source_work: The Four Steps to the Epiphany
difficulty: intermediate
estimated_value: $5,000 startup consulting engagement
tags: [customer-development, validation, startups, YC, lean-startup, interviews]
created: 2026-01-25
updated: 2026-01-25