avatar-nassim-taleb-risk
使用纳西姆·塔勒布式的尾部风险、利益共担、减法、林迪效应和杠铃策略分析不确定性。用于投资、商业、政策、职业、产品或个人决策中的出局风险、不可逆损失、脆弱性、代理问题、新旧方案比较和资源配置。
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Install
Works with every agent the skills CLI supports.
npx skills add https://github.com/wind-alice/alicemarket --skill avatar-nassim-taleb-risk- 01
Install
Run the command in your project. The CLI asks which agents to install for.
- 02
Describe the task
Ask your agent for something this skill covers. It loads avatar-nassim-taleb-risk automatically when relevant.
- 03
Review the result
The agent follows the SKILL.md steps, scripts and references bundled with the skill.
SKILL.md
The instructions your agent reads when the skill is triggered.
纳西姆·塔勒布风险框架
优先保护生存与选择权，再讨论平均收益。使用公开思想形成风险分析框架，不模仿或冒充纳西姆·塔勒布本人。
路由模块
根据问题加载相关模块：
- 检查破产、死亡、信誉损毁或其他不可逆下行：读取
references/tail-risk.md - 判断建议者、决策者和受害者是否为同一批人：读取
references/skin-in-the-game.md - 系统因功能、规则、干预或依赖过多而变脆弱：读取
references/via-negativa.md - 比较新旧思想、制度、习惯和非易腐事物：读取
references/lindy.md - 在生存底座与开放上行之间配置资源：读取
references/barbell.md
重大决策通常按“尾部风险 → 利益共担 → 减法 → 林迪 → 杠铃配置”推进。不要把所有问题都强行归类为极端风险。
综合工作流
- 定义出局线和不可逆损失，先判断是否存在生存级风险。
- 画出上行、下行、触发条件和风险承担者，检查不对称性。
- 判断系统更接近有界、稳定分布，还是受网络效应、杠杆与连锁反应支配。
- 审计谁获得收益、谁承担损失，以及建议者是否真正暴露于后果。
- 寻找可移除的脆弱源、单点依赖和难以回滚的干预。
- 对非易腐方案使用时间与淘汰压力作为证据，但不把“古老”自动等同于正确。
- 在下行受控后，设计保守底座与小额开放上行，并明确各桶的损失上限。
- 给出拒绝、缩小暴露、试验、对冲或参与的结论。
证据纪律
- 区分尾部风险、普通波动和纯粹未知，不用戏剧性语言代替机制。
- 林迪效应主要适用于非易腐事物；技术、医学和硬件需要额外证据。
- 杠铃不是固定比例口诀，比例取决于出局线、流动性和风险相关性。
- 涉及健康、金融、法律或公共政策时核验最新的一手证据，并标记推断。
- 不因无法量化就宣称风险必然巨大，也不因历史平稳就宣称风险不存在。
输出协议
优先按以下结构回答：
- 风险判词
- 出局线与不对称性
- 利益共担审计
- 应删除的脆弱源
- 林迪或历史检验
- 杠铃配置与损失上限
- 行动结论与待验证信息
句子可以短，结论必须与证据强度相匹配。
FAQ
What does the avatar-nassim-taleb-risk skill do?
使用纳西姆·塔勒布式的尾部风险、利益共担、减法、林迪效应和杠铃策略分析不确定性。用于投资、商业、政策、职业、产品或个人决策中的出局风险、不可逆损失、脆弱性、代理问题、新旧方案比较和资源配置。
How do I install avatar-nassim-taleb-risk?
Run npx skills add https://github.com/wind-alice/alicemarket --skill avatar-nassim-taleb-risk in your project. The skills CLI detects the agents you use and copies the skill into the right folder. For Claude Code you can also place the skill folder at ~/.claude/skills/avatar-nassim-taleb-risk/ (personal) or .claude/skills/avatar-nassim-taleb-risk/ (project).
Which AI agents can use avatar-nassim-taleb-risk?
Any agent that supports the open Agent Skills format (a folder with a SKILL.md file), including Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, Windsurf, Cline, OpenCode and more.
Is avatar-nassim-taleb-risk safe to install?
No partner security audit is available yet. Skills can run commands and scripts, so read the SKILL.md and any bundled files before installing.
Who maintains avatar-nassim-taleb-risk?
It is published by wind-alice in wind-alice/alicemarket. It has 232 recorded installs.
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