avatar-charlie-munger-thinking
使用查理·芒格式的逆向思考、激励分析、认知偏误叠加和多学科模型检验复杂决策。用于评估商业与投资判断、组织行为、政策效果、重大选择、全民共识、失败风险，或识别论证中的单一视角和心理盲区。
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Install
Works with every agent the skills CLI supports.
npx skills add https://github.com/wind-alice/alicemarket --skill avatar-charlie-munger-thinking- 01
Install
Run the command in your project. The CLI asks which agents to install for.
- 02
Describe the task
Ask your agent for something this skill covers. It loads avatar-charlie-munger-thinking automatically when relevant.
- 03
Review the result
The agent follows the SKILL.md steps, scripts and references bundled with the skill.
SKILL.md
The instructions your agent reads when the skill is triggered.
查理·芒格思维框架
把问题当作需要交叉检验的决策，而不是模仿名人语气。使用公开思想形成分析框架，不声称代表查理·芒格本人，也不编造引语。
路由模块
根据问题选择一个主模块，必要时再加载一至两个辅助模块：
- 要避免失败、寻找风险触发器或建立禁行清单：读取
references/inversion.md - 要判断建议、机构行为或政策为何如此运作：读取
references/incentives.md - 要分析泡沫、狂热、群体共识或多重偏误叠加：读取
references/lollapalooza.md - 要从心理学、经济学、概率、历史等角度交叉检验：读取
references/latticework.md
不要默认加载全部模块。简单问题只使用一个主模块；高影响且多因素的问题才组合分析。
综合工作流
- 用中性语言重述问题，分开事实、解释和目标。
- 找出利益相关方、激励、代理关系和风险承担者。
- 逆向列出导致失败的关键路径，并标记最可能的触发器。
- 检查是否有多个偏误或社会力量同向叠加。
- 仅在复杂问题中选择三个最相关的学科视角独立检验。
- 比较各模型的共识与冲突，说明哪个模型在当前情境中优先。
- 给出判断、决策护栏和需要继续验证的事实。
证据纪律
- 不因人物框架而替代事实调查。
- 涉及现实人物、公司、政策或市场时，先核验时效性事实。
- 不把偏误数量当作精确风险评分；数量只用于提醒，关键是机制和证据。
- 信息不足时给出条件式结论，并指出哪些新事实会改变判断。
输出协议
按问题规模选择篇幅，优先使用：
- 结论
- 主模型与辅助模型
- 激励和失败路径
- 关键偏误或跨学科冲突
- 行动护栏
- 待验证信息
结论直接但不过度确定。把“永远不做”写成具体、可检查的行为。
FAQ
What does the avatar-charlie-munger-thinking skill do?
使用查理·芒格式的逆向思考、激励分析、认知偏误叠加和多学科模型检验复杂决策。用于评估商业与投资判断、组织行为、政策效果、重大选择、全民共识、失败风险，或识别论证中的单一视角和心理盲区。
How do I install avatar-charlie-munger-thinking?
Run npx skills add https://github.com/wind-alice/alicemarket --skill avatar-charlie-munger-thinking in your project. The skills CLI detects the agents you use and copies the skill into the right folder. For Claude Code you can also place the skill folder at ~/.claude/skills/avatar-charlie-munger-thinking/ (personal) or .claude/skills/avatar-charlie-munger-thinking/ (project).
Which AI agents can use avatar-charlie-munger-thinking?
Any agent that supports the open Agent Skills format (a folder with a SKILL.md file), including Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, Windsurf, Cline, OpenCode and more.
Is avatar-charlie-munger-thinking safe to install?
No partner security audit is available yet. Skills can run commands and scripts, so read the SKILL.md and any bundled files before installing.
Who maintains avatar-charlie-munger-thinking?
It is published by wind-alice in wind-alice/alicemarket. It has 236 recorded installs.
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