trade-hypothesis-ideator
Generate falsifiable trade strategy hypotheses from market data, trade logs, and journal snippets. Use when you have a structured input bundle and want ranked hypothesis cards with experiment designs, kill criteria, and optional strategy.yaml export compatible with edge-finder-candidate/v1.
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Install
Works with every agent the skills CLI supports.
npx skills add https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill trade-hypothesis-ideator- 01
Install
Run the command in your project. The CLI asks which agents to install for.
- 02
Describe the task
Ask your agent for something this skill covers. It loads trade-hypothesis-ideator automatically when relevant.
- 03
Review the result
The agent follows the SKILL.md steps, scripts and references bundled with the skill.
SKILL.md
The instructions your agent reads when the skill is triggered.
Trade Hypothesis Ideator
Generate 1-5 structured hypothesis cards from a normalized input bundle, critique and rank them, then optionally export pursue cards into strategy.yaml + metadata.json artifacts.
When to Use
- After gathering trade logs, journal entries, or market observations that suggest a potential edge
- When you have a structured input bundle (JSON) with evidence snippets and want falsifiable hypotheses
- To bridge qualitative observations into quantitative experiment designs
- Before committing capital to validate a new strategy idea with kill criteria
Prerequisites
- Input JSON bundle with one or more of:
trade_log,journal_snippets,market_data,observations - Python 3.9+ with
pyyamlinstalled - No external API keys required (pure calculation skill)
Workflow
- Receive input JSON bundle.
- Run pass 1 normalization + evidence extraction.
- Generate hypotheses with prompts:
prompts/system_prompt.mdprompts/developer_prompt_template.md(inject{{evidence_summary}})
- Critique hypotheses with
prompts/critique_prompt_template.md. - Run pass 2 ranking + output formatting + guardrails.
- Optionally export
pursuehypotheses via Step H strategy exporter.
Scripts
- Pass 1 (evidence summary):
python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
--input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
--output-dir reports/
- Pass 2 (rank + output + optional export):
python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
--input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
--hypotheses reports/raw_hypotheses.json \
--output-dir reports/ \
--export-strategies
Output
hypothesis_cards_<date>.json— Ranked hypothesis cards with verdicts (pursue,revise,discard)hypothesis_cards_<date>.md— Human-readable summary with experiment designs and kill criteriastrategy_<hypothesis_id>.yaml— (Optional) Edge-finder-compatible strategy export forpursuecardsmetadata_<hypothesis_id>.json— (Optional) Provenance metadata for exported strategies
Resources
references/hypothesis_types.md— Taxonomy of hypothesis patterns (mean-reversion, momentum, event-driven, etc.)references/evidence_quality_guide.md— Criteria for rating evidence strength and sample size requirements
FAQ
What does the trade-hypothesis-ideator skill do?
Generate falsifiable trade strategy hypotheses from market data, trade logs, and journal snippets. Use when you have a structured input bundle and want ranked hypothesis cards with experiment designs, kill criteria, and optional strategy.yaml export compatible with edge-finder-candidate/v1.
How do I install trade-hypothesis-ideator?
Run npx skills add https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill trade-hypothesis-ideator in your project. The skills CLI detects the agents you use and copies the skill into the right folder. For Claude Code you can also place the skill folder at ~/.claude/skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/ (personal) or .claude/skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/ (project).
Which AI agents can use trade-hypothesis-ideator?
Any agent that supports the open Agent Skills format (a folder with a SKILL.md file), including Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, Windsurf, Cline, OpenCode and more.
Is trade-hypothesis-ideator safe to install?
No partner security audit is available yet. Skills can run commands and scripts, so read the SKILL.md and any bundled files before installing.
Who maintains trade-hypothesis-ideator?
It is published by tradermonty in tradermonty/claude-trading-skills. It has 3,240 recorded installs.
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