ibd-distribution-day-monitor
Detect IBD-style Distribution Days for QQQ/SPY (close down at least 0.2% on higher volume), track 25-session expiration and 5% invalidation, count d5/d15/d25 clusters, classify market risk (NORMAL/CAUTION/HIGH/SEVERE), and emit TQQQ/QQQ exposure recommendations. Use after market close, before TQQQ exposure changes, or as input to FTD/market-state frameworks. Does not execute trades.
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Install
Works with every agent the skills CLI supports.
npx skills add https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill ibd-distribution-day-monitor- 01
Install
Run the command in your project. The CLI asks which agents to install for.
- 02
Describe the task
Ask your agent for something this skill covers. It loads ibd-distribution-day-monitor automatically when relevant.
- 03
Review the result
The agent follows the SKILL.md steps, scripts and references bundled with the skill.
SKILL.md
The instructions your agent reads when the skill is triggered.
IBD Distribution Day Monitor
Purpose
Detect IBD-style Distribution Days for major market ETFs (QQQ as Nasdaq proxy, SPY as S&P 500 proxy) and produce a daily market deterioration signal plus a TQQQ/QQQ exposure recommendation. Designed for post-market review.
When to Use
Invoke this skill:
- Daily after the US market close.
- Before increasing TQQQ exposure or rebalancing leveraged positions.
- When evaluating whether an uptrend is becoming vulnerable to a correction.
- As an upstream input to FTD (Follow-Through Day) detection or other market-state frameworks.
Do NOT use this skill to:
- Execute trades or modify orders.
- Generate discretionary market predictions outside of the IBD ruleset.
Inputs
- Symbols (default: QQQ, SPY) and lookback (default 80 trading sessions).
- Optional
--as-of YYYY-MM-DDfor backtesting against a historical session. - Strategy context: instrument (TQQQ or QQQ), current exposure %, base trailing stop %.
- FMP API key via
--api-key,config.data.api_key, orFMP_API_KEYenv var (in that priority order).
Core Rules
A Distribution Day is detected when:
- Today's close is at least 0.2% below yesterday's close.
- Today's volume is greater than yesterday's volume.
A Distribution Day is removed from the active count when either:
- More than 25 trading sessions have elapsed since the DD.
- The index has gained 5% from the DD close (using post-DD high by default; configurable to close-source).
Today's DD is never invalidated immediately because there are no post-DD sessions to evaluate the 5% gain against.
Counting Conventions
d5_count/d15_count/d25_countcount active records withage_sessions <= N.- This means N+1 sessions are inspected (age 0..N inclusive). Reports therefore say "within N elapsed sessions" rather than "直近 N 取引日" to avoid ambiguity.
Risk Classification
| Risk | Trigger |
|---|---|
| NORMAL | d25 <= 2 |
| CAUTION | d25 >= 3 |
| HIGH | d25 >= 5 OR d15 >= 3 OR d5 >= 2 |
| SEVERE | d25 >= 6 OR d15 >= 4 OR (market_below_21ema_or_50ma AND d25 >= 5) |
When both QQQ and SPY are loaded, QQQ-weighted overall logic applies (TQQQ-aware): a single SEVERE escalates to SEVERE; QQQ HIGH escalates to overall HIGH; QQQ NORMAL + SPY HIGH still escalates to HIGH (broad-market spillover).
TQQQ Exposure Policy
| Risk | Action | Target Exposure | Trailing Stop |
|---|---|---|---|
| NORMAL | HOLD_OR_FOLLOW_BASE_STRATEGY | 100% | base |
| CAUTION | AVOID_NEW_ADDS | 75% | min(base, 7%) |
| HIGH | REDUCE_EXPOSURE | 50% | min(base, 5%) |
| SEVERE | CLOSE_TQQQ_OR_HEDGE | 25% | min(base, 3%) |
QQQ uses a less aggressive policy (HIGH=75%, SEVERE=50%) since it lacks 3x leverage.
Workflow
- Load OHLCV for the configured symbols via FMP (
get_historical_prices). - Validate data quality; record skipped sessions in audit.
- Rebase via
prepare_effective_historysoeffective_history[0]is the evaluation session. - Detect raw Distribution Days; enrich with
high_since, invalidation event, and status. - Count
d5/d15/d25active records. - Compute 21EMA and 50SMA filters; flag
market_below_21ema_or_50ma(None if data insufficient). - Classify each index, then combine using QQQ-weighted policy.
- Generate portfolio action for the configured instrument.
- Write JSON + Markdown reports to
--output-dirwith API keys redacted.
Outputs
Saved to reports/ (or --output-dir):
ibd_distribution_day_monitor_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.jsonibd_distribution_day_monitor_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.md
JSON is UTF-8 with ensure_ascii=False (Japanese explanations preserved). Sensitive keys (api_key, fmp_api_key, token, etc.) are redacted automatically.
Operating Principles
- Do not override the IBD rule definitions unless
config/default.yamlis changed deliberately. - Always explain which dates contributed to the active count.
- Treat missing or unreliable volume data as a warning (audit_flag), not as a Distribution Day.
- Do not place trades. The portfolio action is a risk-management suggestion, not an execution instruction.
CLI
python3 skills/ibd-distribution-day-monitor/scripts/ibd_monitor.py \
--symbols QQQ,SPY \
--lookback-days 80 \
--instrument TQQQ \
--current-exposure 100 \
--base-trailing-stop 10 \
--output-dir reports/
API Requirements
FMP API key required. Free tier (250 calls/day) is sufficient for daily QQQ + SPY runs.
Related Skills
ftd-detector: Bottom confirmation via Follow-Through Days (counterpart of this top-side signal).market-top-detector: Composite 0-100 top probability score using O'Neil distribution + other components.position-sizer: Convert risk-management recommendations into share counts.
FAQ
What does the ibd-distribution-day-monitor skill do?
Detect IBD-style Distribution Days for QQQ/SPY (close down at least 0.2% on higher volume), track 25-session expiration and 5% invalidation, count d5/d15/d25 clusters, classify market risk (NORMAL/CAUTION/HIGH/SEVERE), and emit TQQQ/QQQ exposure recommendations. Use after market close, before TQQQ exposure changes, or as input to FTD/market-state frameworks. Does not execute trades.
How do I install ibd-distribution-day-monitor?
Run npx skills add https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill ibd-distribution-day-monitor in your project. The skills CLI detects the agents you use and copies the skill into the right folder. For Claude Code you can also place the skill folder at ~/.claude/skills/ibd-distribution-day-monitor/ (personal) or .claude/skills/ibd-distribution-day-monitor/ (project).
Which AI agents can use ibd-distribution-day-monitor?
Any agent that supports the open Agent Skills format (a folder with a SKILL.md file), including Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, Windsurf, Cline, OpenCode and more.
Is ibd-distribution-day-monitor safe to install?
No partner security audit is available yet. Skills can run commands and scripts, so read the SKILL.md and any bundled files before installing.
Who maintains ibd-distribution-day-monitor?
It is published by tradermonty in tradermonty/claude-trading-skills. It has 2,993 recorded installs.
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