MCPInstall

trump-code-market-signals

AI-powered analysis of Trump's social media posts to predict stock market movements using 31.5M brute-force tested rules

Installs
1.3K
Last 24h
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Trending rank
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Security
Not audited

Install

Works with every agent the skills CLI supports.

npx skills add https://github.com/reason-machines/trending-skills --skill trump-code-market-signals
  1. 01

    Install

    Run the command in your project. The CLI asks which agents to install for.

  2. 02

    Describe the task

    Ask your agent for something this skill covers. It loads trump-code-market-signals automatically when relevant.

  3. 03

    Review the result

    The agent follows the SKILL.md steps, scripts and references bundled with the skill.

SKILL.md

The instructions your agent reads when the skill is triggered.

Trump Code — Market Signal Analysis

Skill by ara.so — Daily 2026 Skills collection.

Trump Code is an open-source system that applies brute-force computation to find statistically significant patterns between Trump's Truth Social/X posting behavior and S&P 500 movements. It has tested 31.5M model combinations, maintains 551 surviving rules, and has a verified 61.3% hit rate across 566 predictions (z=5.39, p<0.05).

Installation

git clone https://github.com/sstklen/trump-code.git
cd trump-code
pip install -r requirements.txt

Environment Variables

# Required for AI briefing and chatbot
export GEMINI_KEYS="key1,key2,key3"       # Comma-separated Gemini API keys

# Optional: for Claude Opus deep analysis
export ANTHROPIC_API_KEY="your-key-here"

# Optional: for Polymarket/Kalshi integration
export POLYMARKET_API_KEY="your-key-here"

CLI — Key Commands

# Today's detected signals from Trump's posts
python3 trump_code_cli.py signals

# Model performance leaderboard (all 11 named models)
python3 trump_code_cli.py models

# Get LONG/SHORT consensus prediction
python3 trump_code_cli.py predict

# Prediction market arbitrage opportunities
python3 trump_code_cli.py arbitrage

# System health check (circuit breaker state)
python3 trump_code_cli.py health

# Full daily report (trilingual)
python3 trump_code_cli.py report

# Dump all data as JSON
python3 trump_code_cli.py json

Core Scripts

# Real-time Trump post monitor (polls every 5 min)
python3 realtime_loop.py

# Brute-force model search (~25 min, tests millions of combos)
python3 overnight_search.py

# Individual analyses
python3 analysis_06_market.py        # Posts vs S&P 500 correlation
python3 analysis_09_combo_score.py   # Multi-signal combo scoring

# Web dashboard + AI chatbot on port 8888
export GEMINI_KEYS="key1,key2,key3"
python3 chatbot_server.py
# → http://localhost:8888

REST API (Live at trumpcode.washinmura.jp)

import requests

BASE = "https://trumpcode.washinmura.jp"

# All dashboard data in one call
data = requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/dashboard").json()

# Today's signals + 7-day history
signals = requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/signals").json()

# Model performance rankings
models = requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/models").json()

# Latest 20 Trump posts with signal tags
posts = requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/recent-posts").json()

# Live Polymarket Trump prediction markets (316+)
markets = requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/polymarket-trump").json()

# LONG/SHORT playbooks
playbook = requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/playbook").json()

# System health / circuit breaker state
status = requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/status").json()

AI Chatbot API

import requests

response = requests.post(
    "https://trumpcode.washinmura.jp/api/chat",
    json={"message": "What signals fired today and what's the consensus?"}
)
print(response.json()["reply"])

MCP Server (Claude Code / Cursor Integration)

Add to ~/.claude/settings.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "trump-code": {
      "command": "python3",
      "args": ["/path/to/trump-code/mcp_server.py"]
    }
  }
}

Available MCP tools: signals, models, predict, arbitrage, health, events, dual_platform, crowd, full_report

Open Data Files

All data lives in data/ and is updated daily:

import json, pathlib

DATA = pathlib.Path("data")

# 44,000+ Truth Social posts
posts = json.loads((DATA / "trump_posts_all.json").read_text())

# Posts with signals pre-tagged
posts_lite = json.loads((DATA / "trump_posts_lite.json").read_text())

# 566 verified predictions with outcomes
predictions = json.loads((DATA / "predictions_log.json").read_text())

# 551 active rules (brute-force + evolved)
rules = json.loads((DATA / "surviving_rules.json").read_text())

# 384 features × 414 trading days
features = json.loads((DATA / "daily_features.json").read_text())

# S&P 500 OHLC history
market = json.loads((DATA / "market_SP500.json").read_text())

# Circuit breaker / system health
cb = json.loads((DATA / "circuit_breaker_state.json").read_text())

# Rule evolution log (crossover/mutation)
evo = json.loads((DATA / "evolution_log.json").read_text())

Download Data via API

import requests

BASE = "https://trumpcode.washinmura.jp"

# List available datasets
catalog = requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/data").json()

# Download a specific file
raw = requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/data/surviving_rules.json").content
rules = json.loads(raw)

Real Code Examples

Parse Today's Signals

import requests

signals_data = requests.get("https://trumpcode.washinmura.jp/api/signals").json()

today = signals_data.get("today", {})
print("Signals fired today:", today.get("signals", []))
print("Consensus:", today.get("consensus"))        # "LONG" / "SHORT" / "NEUTRAL"
print("Confidence:", today.get("confidence"))      # 0.0–1.0
print("Active models:", today.get("active_models", []))

Find Top Performing Rules from Surviving Rules

import json

rules = json.loads(open("data/surviving_rules.json").read())

# Sort by hit rate descending
top_rules = sorted(rules, key=lambda r: r.get("hit_rate", 0), reverse=True)

for rule in top_rules[:10]:
    print(f"Rule: {rule['id']} | Hit Rate: {rule['hit_rate']:.1%} | "
          f"Trades: {rule['n_trades']} | Avg Return: {rule['avg_return']:.3%}")

Check Prediction Market Opportunities

import requests

arb = requests.get("https://trumpcode.washinmura.jp/api/insights").json()
markets = requests.get("https://trumpcode.washinmura.jp/api/polymarket-trump").json()

# Markets sorted by volume
active = [m for m in markets.get("markets", []) if m.get("active")]
by_volume = sorted(active, key=lambda m: m.get("volume", 0), reverse=True)

for m in by_volume[:5]:
    print(f"{m['title']}: YES={m['yes_price']:.0%} | Vol=${m['volume']:,.0f}")

Correlate Post Features with Returns

import json
import numpy as np

features = json.loads(open("data/daily_features.json").read())
market   = json.loads(open("data/market_SP500.json").read())

# Build date-indexed return map
returns = {d["date"]: d["close_pct"] for d in market}

# Example: correlate post_count with next-day return
xs, ys = [], []
for day in features:
    date = day["date"]
    if date in returns:
        xs.append(day.get("post_count", 0))
        ys.append(returns[date])

correlation = np.corrcoef(xs, ys)[0, 1]
print(f"Post count vs same-day return: r={correlation:.3f}")

Run a Backtest on a Custom Signal

import json

posts    = json.loads(open("data/trump_posts_lite.json").read())
market   = json.loads(open("data/market_SP500.json").read())

returns  = {d["date"]: d["close_pct"] for d in market}

# Find days with RELIEF signal before 9:30 AM ET
relief_days = [
    p["date"] for p in posts
    if "RELIEF" in p.get("signals", []) and p.get("hour", 24) < 9
]

hits = [returns[d] for d in relief_days if d in returns]
if hits:
    print(f"RELIEF pre-market: n={len(hits)}, "
          f"avg={sum(hits)/len(hits):.3%}, "
          f"hit_rate={sum(1 for h in hits if h > 0)/len(hits):.1%}")

Key Signal Types

SignalDescriptionTypical Impact
RELIEF pre-market"Relief" language before 9:30 AMAvg +1.12% same-day
TARIFF market hoursTariff mention during tradingAvg -0.758% next day
DEALDeal/agreement language52.2% hit rate
CHINA (Truth Social only)China mentions (never on X)1.5× weight boost
SILENCEZero-post day80% bullish, avg +0.409%
Burst → silenceRapid posting then goes quiet65.3% LONG signal

Model Reference

ModelStrategyHit RateAvg Return
A3Pre-market RELIEF → surge72.7%+1.206%
D3Volume spike → panic bottom70.2%+0.306%
D2Signature switch → formal statement70.0%+0.472%
C1Burst → long silence → LONG65.3%+0.145%
C3 ⚠️Late-night tariff (anti-indicator)37.5%−0.414%

Note: C3 is an anti-indicator — if it fires, the circuit breaker auto-inverts it to LONG (62% accuracy after inversion).

System Architecture Flow

Truth Social post detected (every 5 min)
    → Classify signals (RELIEF / TARIFF / DEAL / CHINA / etc.)
    → Dual-platform boost (TS-only China = 1.5× weight)
    → Snapshot Polymarket + S&P 500
    → Run 551 surviving rules → generate prediction
    → Track at 1h / 3h / 6h
    → Verify outcome → update rule weights
    → Circuit breaker: if system degrades → pause/invert
    → Daily: evolve rules (crossover / mutation / distillation)
    → Sync data to GitHub

Troubleshooting

realtime_loop.py not detecting new posts

  • Check your network access to Truth Social scraper endpoints
  • Verify data/trump_posts_all.json timestamp is recent
  • Run python3 trump_code_cli.py health to see circuit breaker state

chatbot_server.py fails to start

  • Ensure GEMINI_KEYS env var is set: export GEMINI_KEYS="key1,key2"
  • Port 8888 may be in use: lsof -i :8888

overnight_search.py runs out of memory

  • Runs ~31.5M combinations — needs ~4GB RAM
  • Run on a machine with 8GB+ or reduce search space in script config

Hit rate dropping below 55%

  • Check data/circuit_breaker_state.json — system may have auto-paused
  • Review data/learning_report.json for demoted rules
  • Re-run overnight_search.py to refresh surviving rules

Stale data in data/ directory

  • Daily pipeline syncs to GitHub automatically if running
  • Manually trigger: python3 trump_code_cli.py report to force refresh
  • Or pull latest from remote: git pull origin main

FAQ

What does the trump-code-market-signals skill do?

AI-powered analysis of Trump's social media posts to predict stock market movements using 31.5M brute-force tested rules

How do I install trump-code-market-signals?

Run npx skills add https://github.com/reason-machines/trending-skills --skill trump-code-market-signals in your project. The skills CLI detects the agents you use and copies the skill into the right folder. For Claude Code you can also place the skill folder at ~/.claude/skills/trump-code-market-signals/ (personal) or .claude/skills/trump-code-market-signals/ (project).

Which AI agents can use trump-code-market-signals?

Any agent that supports the open Agent Skills format (a folder with a SKILL.md file), including Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, Windsurf, Cline, OpenCode and more.

Is trump-code-market-signals safe to install?

No partner security audit is available yet. Skills can run commands and scripts, so read the SKILL.md and any bundled files before installing.

Who maintains trump-code-market-signals?

It is published by reason-machines in reason-machines/trending-skills. It has 1,301 recorded installs.

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