thinking-in-bets
Use when asked to "thinking in bets", "make decisions under uncertainty", "think probabilistically", "avoid resulting", "separate decision quality from outcomes", or "reduce bias in decisions". Helps make explicit bets and evaluate decisions on process, not results. The Thinking in Bets framework (from Annie Duke) applies poker strategy to business and life decisions.
- Installs
- 425
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- Security
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Install
Works with every agent the skills CLI supports.
npx skills add https://github.com/pmprompt/claude-plugin-product-management --skill thinking-in-bets- 01
Install
Run the command in your project. The CLI asks which agents to install for.
- 02
Describe the task
Ask your agent for something this skill covers. It loads thinking-in-bets automatically when relevant.
- 03
Review the result
The agent follows the SKILL.md steps, scripts and references bundled with the skill.
SKILL.md
The instructions your agent reads when the skill is triggered.
Domain Context
This skill implements a proven product management framework. The approach combines best practices from industry leaders and is designed for practical application in day-to-day PM work.
Input Requirements
- Context about your product, feature, or problem
- Relevant data, research, or constraints (recommended but optional)
- Clear articulation of what you're trying to achieve
Thinking in Bets
What It Is
Thinking in Bets is a framework for improving decision quality by separating decisions from outcomes. The core insight: a good decision can have a bad outcome, and a bad decision can have a good outcome—luck is always involved.
Most people judge decisions by their outcomes (called "resulting"). This is backwards. You can only control the quality of your decision, not the outcome.
The key shifts:
- Move from "Was I right?" to "Was my thinking process good?"
- Move from "What happened?" to "What did I know at the time?"
- Move from implicit assumptions to explicit, testable beliefs
When to Use It
Use Thinking in Bets when you need to:
- Evaluate past decisions without outcome bias clouding judgment
- Make decisions under uncertainty where luck will influence results
- Improve team decision-making in meetings and planning
- Set up pre-mortems and kill criteria for projects
- Shorten feedback loops on decisions with delayed outcomes
- Reduce cognitive biases like overconfidence, hindsight bias, and sunk cost
- Run better meetings that surface true opinions, not groupthink
When Not to Use It
- The decision is trivial with low stakes
- You have perfect information (rare)
- You're looking for permission to take a risk you've already decided on
Resources
Books:
- Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
- Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away by Annie Duke
- Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
FAQ
What does the thinking-in-bets skill do?
Use when asked to "thinking in bets", "make decisions under uncertainty", "think probabilistically", "avoid resulting", "separate decision quality from outcomes", or "reduce bias in decisions". Helps make explicit bets and evaluate decisions on process, not results. The Thinking in Bets framework (from Annie Duke) applies poker strategy to business and life decisions.
How do I install thinking-in-bets?
Run npx skills add https://github.com/pmprompt/claude-plugin-product-management --skill thinking-in-bets in your project. The skills CLI detects the agents you use and copies the skill into the right folder. For Claude Code you can also place the skill folder at ~/.claude/skills/thinking-in-bets/ (personal) or .claude/skills/thinking-in-bets/ (project).
Which AI agents can use thinking-in-bets?
Any agent that supports the open Agent Skills format (a folder with a SKILL.md file), including Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, Windsurf, Cline, OpenCode and more.
Is thinking-in-bets safe to install?
No partner security audit is available yet. Skills can run commands and scripts, so read the SKILL.md and any bundled files before installing.
Who maintains thinking-in-bets?
It is published by pmprompt in pmprompt/claude-plugin-product-management. It has 425 recorded installs.
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