scenario-war-room
Cross-functional what-if modeling for cascading multi-variable scenarios. Unlike single-assumption stress testing, this models compound adversity across all business functions simultaneously. Use when facing complex risk scenarios, strategic decisions with major downside, or when the user asks 'what if X AND Y both happen?'
- Installs
- 577
- Last 24h
- —
- Trending rank
- —
- Security
- Not audited
Install
Works with every agent the skills CLI supports.
npx skills add https://github.com/alirezarezvani/claude-skills --skill scenario-war-room- 01
Install
Run the command in your project. The CLI asks which agents to install for.
- 02
Describe the task
Ask your agent for something this skill covers. It loads scenario-war-room automatically when relevant.
- 03
Review the result
The agent follows the SKILL.md steps, scripts and references bundled with the skill.
SKILL.md
The instructions your agent reads when the skill is triggered.
Scenario War Room
Model cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests — compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next.
Keywords
scenario planning, war room, what-if analysis, risk modeling, cascading effects, compound risk, adversity planning, contingency planning, stress test, crisis planning, multi-variable scenario, pre-mortem
Quick Start
python scripts/scenario_modeler.py # Interactive scenario builder with cascade modeling
Or describe the scenario in natural language:
"What if we lose our top customer AND miss the Q3 fundraise?" "What if 3 engineers quit AND we need to ship by Q3?" "What if our market shrinks 30% AND a competitor raises $50M?"
What This Is Not
- Not a single-assumption stress test (that's
/em:stress-test) - Not financial modeling only — every function gets modeled
- Not worst-case-only — models 3 severity levels
- Not paralysis by analysis — outputs concrete hedges and triggers
Framework: 6-Step Cascade Model
Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (max 3)
State each variable with:
- What changes — specific, quantified if possible
- Probability — your best estimate
- Timeline — when it hits
Variable A: Top customer (28% ARR) gives 60-day termination notice
Probability: 15% | Timeline: Within 90 days
Variable B: Series A fundraise delayed 6 months beyond target close
Probability: 25% | Timeline: Q3
Variable C: Lead engineer resigns
Probability: 20% | Timeline: Unknown
Step 2: Domain Impact Mapping
For each variable, each relevant role models impact:
| Domain | Owner | Models |
|---|---|---|
| Cash & runway | CFO | Burn impact, runway change, bridge options |
| Revenue | CRO | ARR gap, churn cascade risk, pipeline |
| Product | CPO | Roadmap impact, PMF risk |
| Engineering | CTO | Velocity impact, key person risk |
| People | CHRO | Attrition cascade, hiring freeze implications |
| Operations | COO | Capacity, OKR impact, process risk |
| Security | CISO | Compliance timeline risk |
| Market | CMO | CAC impact, competitive exposure |
Step 3: Cascade Effect Mapping
This is the core. Show how Variable A triggers consequences in domains that trigger Variable B's effects:
TRIGGER: Customer churn ($560K ARR)
↓
CFO: Runway drops 14 → 8 months
↓
CHRO: Hiring freeze; retention risk increases (morale hit)
↓
CTO: 3 open engineering reqs frozen; roadmap slips
↓
CPO: Q4 feature launch delayed → customer retention risk
↓
CRO: NRR drops; existing accounts see reduced velocity → more churn risk
↓
CFO: [Secondary cascade — potential death spiral if not interrupted]
Name the cascade explicitly. Show where it can be interrupted.
Step 4: Severity Matrix
Model three scenarios:
| Scenario | Definition | Recovery |
|---|---|---|
| Base | One variable hits; others don't | Manageable with plan |
| Stress | Two variables hit simultaneously | Requires significant response |
| Severe | All variables hit; full cascade | Existential; requires board intervention |
For each severity level:
- Runway impact
- ARR impact
- Headcount impact
- Timeline to unacceptable state (trigger point)
Step 5: Trigger Points (Early Warning Signals)
Define the measurable signal that tells you a scenario is unfolding before it's confirmed:
Trigger for Customer Churn Risk:
- Sponsor goes dark for >3 weeks
- Usage drops >25% MoM
- No Q1 QBR confirmed by Dec 1
Trigger for Fundraise Delay:
- <3 term sheets after 60 days of process
- Lead investor requests >30-day extension on DD
- Competitor raises at lower valuation (market signal)
Trigger for Engineering Attrition:
- Glassdoor activity from engineering team
- 2+ referral interview requests from engineers
- Above-market offer counter-required in last 3 months
Step 6: Hedging Strategies
For each scenario: actions to take now (before the scenario materializes) that reduce impact if it does.
| Hedge | Cost | Impact | Owner | Deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Establish $500K credit line | $5K/year | Buys 3 months if churn hits | CFO | 60 days |
| 12-month retention bonus for 3 key engineers | $90K | Locks team through fundraise | CHRO | 30 days |
| Diversify to <20% revenue concentration per customer | Sales effort | Reduces single-customer risk | CRO | 2 quarters |
| Compress fundraise timeline, start parallel process | CEO time | Closes before runways merge | CEO | Immediate |
Output Format
Every war room session produces:
SCENARIO: [Name]
Variables: [A, B, C]
Most likely path: [which combination actually plays out, with probability]
SEVERITY LEVELS
Base (A only): [runway/ARR impact] — recovery: [X actions]
Stress (A+B): [runway/ARR impact] — recovery: [X actions]
Severe (A+B+C): [runway/ARR impact] — existential risk: [yes/no]
CASCADE MAP
[A → domain impact → B trigger → domain impact → end state]
EARLY WARNING SIGNALS
- [Signal 1 → which scenario it indicates]
- [Signal 2 → which scenario it indicates]
- [Signal 3 → which scenario it indicates]
HEDGES (take these actions now)
1. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]
2. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]
3. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]
RECOMMENDED DECISION
[One paragraph. What to do, in what order, and why.]
Rules for Good War Room Sessions
Max 3 variables per scenario. More than 3 is noise — you can't meaningfully prepare for 5-variable collapse. Model the 3 that actually worry you.
Quantify or estimate. "Revenue drops" is not useful. "$420K ARR at risk over 60 days" is. Use ranges if uncertain.
Don't stop at first-order effects. The damage is always in the cascade, not the initial hit.
Model recovery, not just impact. Every scenario should have a "what we do" path.
Separate base case from sensitivity. Don't conflate "what probably happens" with "what could happen."
Don't over-model. 3-4 scenarios per planning cycle is the right number. More creates analysis paralysis.
Common Scenarios by Stage
Seed:
- Co-founder leaves + product misses launch
- Funding runs out + bridge terms unfavorable
Series A:
- Miss ARR target + fundraise delayed
- Key customer churns + competitor raises
Series B:
- Market contraction + burn multiple spikes
- Lead investor wants pivot + team resists
Integration with C-Suite Roles
| Scenario Type | Primary Roles | Cascade To |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue miss | CRO, CFO | CMO (pipeline), COO (cuts), CHRO (layoffs) |
| Key person departure | CHRO, COO | CTO (if eng), CRO (if sales) |
| Fundraise failure | CFO, CEO | COO (runway extension), CHRO (hiring freeze) |
| Security breach | CISO, CTO | CEO (comms), CFO (cost), CRO (customer impact) |
| Market shift | CEO, CPO | CMO (repositioning), CRO (new segments) |
| Competitor move | CMO, CRO | CPO (roadmap response), CEO (strategy) |
References
references/scenario-planning.md— Shell methodology, pre-mortem, Monte Carlo, cascade frameworksscripts/scenario_modeler.py— CLI tool for structured scenario modeling
FAQ
What does the scenario-war-room skill do?
Cross-functional what-if modeling for cascading multi-variable scenarios. Unlike single-assumption stress testing, this models compound adversity across all business functions simultaneously. Use when facing complex risk scenarios, strategic decisions with major downside, or when the user asks 'what if X AND Y both happen?'
How do I install scenario-war-room?
Run npx skills add https://github.com/alirezarezvani/claude-skills --skill scenario-war-room in your project. The skills CLI detects the agents you use and copies the skill into the right folder. For Claude Code you can also place the skill folder at ~/.claude/skills/scenario-war-room/ (personal) or .claude/skills/scenario-war-room/ (project).
Which AI agents can use scenario-war-room?
Any agent that supports the open Agent Skills format (a folder with a SKILL.md file), including Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, Windsurf, Cline, OpenCode and more.
Is scenario-war-room safe to install?
No partner security audit is available yet. Skills can run commands and scripts, so read the SKILL.md and any bundled files before installing.
Who maintains scenario-war-room?
It is published by alirezarezvani in alirezarezvani/claude-skills. It has 577 recorded installs.
More from alirezarezvani/claude-skills
engineering-skills
alirezarezvani/claude-skills
Index of the engineering-team skills bundle for Claude Code, Codex, Gemini CLI, Cursor, OpenClaw, and 6 more tools. Architecture, frontend, backend, QA, DevOps, security, AI/ML, data engineering, Playwright, Stripe, AWS, MS365 (stdlib-only Python tools). Use when browsing or choosing among engineering-team role skills — load only the one specialist SKILL.md you need, never bulk-load the bundle.
finance-skills
alirezarezvani/claude-skills
Router/index for the finance skills bundled in this plugin: financial-analyst (ratio analysis, DCF valuation, budget variance, rolling forecasts), saas-metrics-coach (ARR/MRR, churn, CAC/LTV, NRR, quick ratio) and month-end-close (close calendar, reconciliations, flux review). Use when a finance request doesn't obviously match one skill and you need to pick the right one (e.g., 'analyze these financials', 'how healthy are my SaaS metrics').
marketing-skills
alirezarezvani/claude-skills
Directory and router for the marketing skills library. Use when you need to find the right marketing skill for a task, see what marketing capabilities exist, or get oriented in this plugin. 44 specialist skills across 8 pods (content, SEO + AEO, CRO, channels, growth, intelligence, sales enablement, ops), 59 stdlib Python tools. Routes to one skill — it does not execute marketing work itself.
business-growth-skills
alirezarezvani/claude-skills
Router/index for the 4 business & growth skills bundled in this plugin: customer-success-manager (health scoring, churn risk, expansion), sales-engineer (RFP analysis, competitive matrices, PoC planning), revenue-operations (pipeline, forecast accuracy, GTM efficiency), and contract-and-proposal-writer. Use when a growth/revenue request doesn't obviously match one skill and you need to pick the right one (e.g., 'which accounts are at risk', 'should we bid on this RFP').
engineering-advanced-skills
alirezarezvani/claude-skills
Index of 37 advanced engineering agent skills for Claude Code, Codex, Gemini CLI, Cursor, OpenClaw. Use when browsing or choosing among the POWERFUL-tier engineering skills: agent design, RAG, MCP servers, CI/CD, database design, observability, security auditing, changelog/release automation, reliability (SLO/chaos/flags/operators), platform ops.
product-skills
alirezarezvani/claude-skills
Use when coordinating product work across the 12 bundled product sub-skills (RICE, OKRs, UX research, design tokens, competitive teardown, analytics, experiments, discovery, roadmaps, spec-to-repo, landing pages, SaaS scaffolding) or the 4 standalone product-team plugins (user stories, Apple HIG, code-to-PRD, research summarizer). Triggers on 'help me prioritize', 'plan a product experiment', 'we ship features nobody uses', 'run the discovery loop', 'is our OST sound'. Forks context to route to one sub-skill via a deterministic signal router and returns a digest; can also drive a continuous-discovery loop (Torres cadence tracker + OST linter as machine gates) or a full goal→plan→execute→verify→close run through the repo-wide agent-harness. Distinct from project-management (how to deliver vs what to build), marketing/landing (from-scratch pages), and engineering/agent-harness (the generic loop engine this orchestrator plugs into).
Popular testing & qa skills
tdd
mattpocock/skills
Test-driven development. Use when the user wants to build features or fix bugs test-first, mentions "red-green-refactor", or wants integration tests.
grilling
mattpocock/skills
Grill the user relentlessly about a plan, decision, or idea. Use when the user wants to stress-test their thinking, or uses any 'grill' trigger phrases.
migrate-to-shoehorn
mattpocock/skills
Migrate test files from as type assertions to @total-typescript/shoehorn. Use when user mentions shoehorn, wants to replace as in tests, or needs partial test data.
run-train
lllllllama/rigorpilot-skills
Rigor Train skill for deep learning research repositories. Use when a documented or selected training command should be run conservatively for startup verification, short-run verification, full kickoff, or resume, with command, config, seed, log, checkpoint, status, and metric evidence written to standardized trainoutputs/. Do not use for environment setup, exploratory sweeps, speculative idea implementation, or end-to-end orchestration.
test-driven-development
obra/superpowers
Use when implementing any feature or bugfix, before writing implementation code
finishing-a-development-branch
obra/superpowers
Use when implementation is complete, all tests pass, and you need to decide how to integrate the work