MCPInstall

statistical hypothesis testing

Conduct statistical tests including t-tests, chi-square, ANOVA, and p-value analysis for statistical significance, hypothesis validation, and A/B testing

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Install

Works with every agent the skills CLI supports.

npx skills add https://github.com/aj-geddes/useful-ai-prompts --skill statistical-hypothesis-testing
  1. 01

    Install

    Run the command in your project. The CLI asks which agents to install for.

  2. 02

    Describe the task

    Ask your agent for something this skill covers. It loads statistical hypothesis testing automatically when relevant.

  3. 03

    Review the result

    The agent follows the SKILL.md steps, scripts and references bundled with the skill.

SKILL.md

The instructions your agent reads when the skill is triggered.

Statistical Hypothesis Testing

Overview

Hypothesis testing provides a framework for making data-driven decisions by testing whether observed differences are statistically significant or due to chance.

Testing Framework

  • Null Hypothesis (H0): No effect or difference exists
  • Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Effect or difference exists
  • Significance Level (α): Threshold for rejecting H0 (typically 0.05)
  • P-value: Probability of observing data if H0 is true

Common Tests

  • T-test: Compare means between two groups
  • ANOVA: Compare means across multiple groups
  • Chi-square: Test independence of categorical variables
  • Mann-Whitney U: Non-parametric alternative to t-test
  • Kruskal-Wallis: Non-parametric alternative to ANOVA

Implementation with Python

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# Sample data
group_a = np.random.normal(100, 15, 50)  # Mean=100, SD=15
group_b = np.random.normal(105, 15, 50)  # Mean=105, SD=15

# Test 1: Independent samples t-test
t_stat, p_value = stats.ttest_ind(group_a, group_b)
print(f"T-test: t={t_stat:.4f}, p-value={p_value:.4f}")
if p_value < 0.05:
    print("Reject null hypothesis: Groups are significantly different")
else:
    print("Fail to reject null hypothesis: No significant difference")

# Test 2: Paired t-test (same subjects, two conditions)
before = np.array([85, 90, 88, 92, 87, 89, 91, 86, 88, 90])
after = np.array([92, 95, 91, 98, 94, 96, 99, 93, 95, 97])

t_stat, p_value = stats.ttest_rel(before, after)
print(f"\nPaired t-test: t={t_stat:.4f}, p-value={p_value:.4f}")

# Test 3: One-way ANOVA (multiple groups)
group1 = np.random.normal(100, 10, 30)
group2 = np.random.normal(105, 10, 30)
group3 = np.random.normal(102, 10, 30)

f_stat, p_value = stats.f_oneway(group1, group2, group3)
print(f"\nANOVA: F={f_stat:.4f}, p-value={p_value:.4f}")

# Test 4: Chi-square test (categorical variables)
# Create contingency table
contingency = np.array([
    [50, 30],  # Control: success, failure
    [45, 35]   # Treatment: success, failure
])

chi2, p_value, dof, expected = stats.chi2_contingency(contingency)
print(f"\nChi-square: χ²={chi2:.4f}, p-value={p_value:.4f}")

# Test 5: Mann-Whitney U test (non-parametric)
u_stat, p_value = stats.mannwhitneyu(group_a, group_b)
print(f"\nMann-Whitney U: U={u_stat:.4f}, p-value={p_value:.4f}")

# Visualization
fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, 2, figsize=(12, 10))

# Distribution comparison
axes[0, 0].hist(group_a, alpha=0.5, label='Group A', bins=20)
axes[0, 0].hist(group_b, alpha=0.5, label='Group B', bins=20)
axes[0, 0].set_title('Group Distributions')
axes[0, 0].legend()

# Q-Q plot for normality
stats.probplot(group_a, dist="norm", plot=axes[0, 1])
axes[0, 1].set_title('Q-Q Plot (Group A)')

# Before/After comparison
axes[1, 0].plot(before, 'o-', label='Before', alpha=0.7)
axes[1, 0].plot(after, 's-', label='After', alpha=0.7)
axes[1, 0].set_title('Paired Comparison')
axes[1, 0].legend()

# Effect size (Cohen's d)
cohens_d = (np.mean(group_a) - np.mean(group_b)) / np.sqrt(
    ((len(group_a)-1)*np.var(group_a, ddof=1) +
     (len(group_b)-1)*np.var(group_b, ddof=1)) /
    (len(group_a) + len(group_b) - 2)
)
axes[1, 1].text(0.5, 0.5, f"Cohen's d = {cohens_d:.4f}",
                ha='center', va='center', fontsize=14)
axes[1, 1].axis('off')

plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# Normality test (Shapiro-Wilk)
stat, p = stats.shapiro(group_a)
print(f"\nShapiro-Wilk normality test: W={stat:.4f}, p-value={p:.4f}")

# Effect size calculation
def calculate_effect_size(group1, group2):
    n1, n2 = len(group1), len(group2)
    var1, var2 = np.var(group1, ddof=1), np.var(group2, ddof=1)
    pooled_std = np.sqrt(((n1-1)*var1 + (n2-1)*var2) / (n1+n2-2))
    cohens_d = (np.mean(group1) - np.mean(group2)) / pooled_std
    return cohens_d

effect_size = calculate_effect_size(group_a, group_b)
print(f"Effect size (Cohen's d): {effect_size:.4f}")

# Confidence intervals
from scipy.stats import t as t_dist

def calculate_ci(data, confidence=0.95):
    n = len(data)
    mean = np.mean(data)
    se = np.std(data, ddof=1) / np.sqrt(n)
    margin = t_dist.ppf((1 + confidence) / 2, n - 1) * se
    return mean - margin, mean + margin

ci = calculate_ci(group_a)
print(f"95% CI for Group A: ({ci[0]:.2f}, {ci[1]:.2f})")

# Additional tests and visualizations

# Test 6: Levene's test for equal variances
stat_levene, p_levene = stats.levene(group_a, group_b)
print(f"\nLevene's Test for Equal Variance:")
print(f"Statistic: {stat_levene:.4f}, P-value: {p_levene:.4f}")

# Test 7: Welch's t-test (doesn't assume equal variance)
t_stat_welch, p_welch = stats.ttest_ind(group_a, group_b, equal_var=False)
print(f"\nWelch's t-test (unequal variance):")
print(f"t-stat: {t_stat_welch:.4f}, p-value: {p_welch:.4f}")

# Power analysis
from scipy.stats import nct
def calculate_power(effect_size, sample_size, alpha=0.05):
    t_critical = stats.t.ppf(1 - alpha/2, 2*sample_size - 2)
    ncp = effect_size * np.sqrt(sample_size / 2)
    power = 1 - stats.nct.cdf(t_critical, 2*sample_size - 2, ncp)
    return power

power = calculate_power(abs(effect_size), len(group_a))
print(f"\nStatistical Power: {power:.2%}")

# Bootstrap confidence intervals
def bootstrap_ci(data, n_bootstrap=10000, ci=95):
    bootstrap_means = []
    for _ in range(n_bootstrap):
        sample = np.random.choice(data, size=len(data), replace=True)
        bootstrap_means.append(np.mean(sample))
    lower = np.percentile(bootstrap_means, (100-ci)/2)
    upper = np.percentile(bootstrap_means, ci + (100-ci)/2)
    return lower, upper

boot_ci = bootstrap_ci(group_a)
print(f"\nBootstrap 95% CI for Group A: ({boot_ci[0]:.2f}, {boot_ci[1]:.2f})")

# Multiple testing correction (Bonferroni)
num_tests = 4
bonferroni_alpha = 0.05 / num_tests
print(f"\nBonferroni Corrected Alpha: {bonferroni_alpha:.4f}")
print(f"Use this threshold for {num_tests} tests")

# Test 8: Kruskal-Wallis test (non-parametric ANOVA)
h_stat, p_kw = stats.kruskal(group1, group2, group3)
print(f"\nKruskal-Wallis Test (non-parametric ANOVA):")
print(f"H-statistic: {h_stat:.4f}, p-value: {p_kw:.4f}")

# Effect size for ANOVA
f_stat, p_anova = stats.f_oneway(group1, group2, group3)
# Calculate eta-squared
grand_mean = np.mean([group1, group2, group3])
ss_between = sum(len(g) * (np.mean(g) - grand_mean)**2 for g in [group1, group2, group3])
ss_total = sum((x - grand_mean)**2 for g in [group1, group2, group3] for x in g)
eta_squared = ss_between / ss_total
print(f"\nEffect Size (Eta-squared): {eta_squared:.4f}")

Interpretation Guidelines

  • p < 0.05: Statistically significant (reject H0)
  • p ≥ 0.05: Not statistically significant (fail to reject H0)
  • Effect size: Magnitude of the difference (small/medium/large)
  • Confidence intervals: Range of plausible parameter values

Assumptions Checklist

  • Independence of observations
  • Normality of distributions (parametric tests)
  • Homogeneity of variance
  • Appropriate sample size
  • Random sampling

Common Pitfalls

  • Misinterpreting p-values
  • Multiple testing without correction
  • Ignoring effect sizes
  • Violating test assumptions
  • Confusing correlation with causation

Deliverables

  • Test results with p-values and test statistics
  • Effect size calculations
  • Visualization of distributions
  • Confidence intervals
  • Interpretation and business implications

FAQ

What does the statistical hypothesis testing skill do?

Conduct statistical tests including t-tests, chi-square, ANOVA, and p-value analysis for statistical significance, hypothesis validation, and A/B testing

How do I install statistical hypothesis testing?

Run npx skills add https://github.com/aj-geddes/useful-ai-prompts --skill statistical-hypothesis-testing in your project. The skills CLI detects the agents you use and copies the skill into the right folder. For Claude Code you can also place the skill folder at ~/.claude/skills/statistical-hypothesis-testing/ (personal) or .claude/skills/statistical-hypothesis-testing/ (project).

Which AI agents can use statistical hypothesis testing?

Any agent that supports the open Agent Skills format (a folder with a SKILL.md file), including Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, Windsurf, Cline, OpenCode and more.

Is statistical hypothesis testing safe to install?

No partner security audit is available yet. Skills can run commands and scripts, so read the SKILL.md and any bundled files before installing.

Who maintains statistical hypothesis testing?

It is published by aj-geddes in aj-geddes/useful-ai-prompts. It has 494 recorded installs.

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