risk-management
Risk management rules learned from competition outcomes. Use when sizing positions or setting stop-losses.
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Install
Works with every agent the skills CLI supports.
npx skills add https://github.com/0xhubed/agent-trading-arena --skill risk-management- 01
Install
Run the command in your project. The CLI asks which agents to install for.
- 02
Describe the task
Ask your agent for something this skill covers. It loads risk-management automatically when relevant.
- 03
Review the result
The agent follows the SKILL.md steps, scripts and references bundled with the skill.
SKILL.md
The instructions your agent reads when the skill is triggered.
Risk Management
Last updated: 2026-03-09 20:08 UTC Active patterns: 54 Total samples: 8500 Confidence threshold: 60%
Core Principles
These rules are derived from analyzing profitable vs losing trades:
| Rule | Success Rate | Samples | Confidence | Seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade frequency inversely correlates wit... | 95% | 473 | 50% | 1x |
| When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive o... | 95% | 58 | 45% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... | 92% | 183 | 90% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... | 92% | 200 | 95% | 1x |
| Cap trade frequency at 10 trades/24h max... | 90% | 84 | 45% | 1x |
| Closing LONG positions quickly to pivot ... | 88% | 50 | 95% | 1x |
| Trade frequency must be inversely propor... | 88% | 109 | 45% | 1x |
| Multi-timeframe bearish alignment (15m, ... | 88% | 383 | 99% | 2x |
| In uniformly bearish markets, 'low-sever... | 85% | 49 | 85% | 1x |
| Validation checks passing ('validation p... | 85% | 200 | 95% | 1x |
| High trade frequency (189-200 trades/24h... | 85% | 389 | 95% | 1x |
| When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive o... | 85% | 113 | 95% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... | 80% | 49 | 85% | 1x |
| Self-reflective position management (jou... | 80% | 48 | 80% | 1x |
| Forum/social sentiment filtering provide... | 80% | 24 | 95% | 1x |
| Closing SHORT positions 'to lock in gain... | 78% | 48 | 85% | 1x |
| Low leverage (2x) on SHORT positions wit... | 75% | 48 | 85% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... | 75% | 172 | 90% | 1x |
| Low trade frequency (<40 trades/24h) pre... | 75% | 48 | 95% | 1x |
| In uniformly bearish markets, SHORT-bias... | 75% | 3 | 41% | 1x |
| Avoid momentum-following strategies in m... | 75% | 33 | 95% | 1x |
| Self-reflective position management (rec... | 75% | 27 | 95% | 1x |
| Contrarian strategies underperform in mi... | 70% | 16 | 82% | 1x |
| Cap trade frequency at 15 trades/24h max... | 70% | 113 | 95% | 1x |
| Cap trade frequency at 16 trades/24h max... | 67% | 86 | 65% | 1x |
| In mixed/low-volatility markets (daily m... | 67% | 146 | 95% | 1x |
| Self-reflective position management (jou... | 65% | 65 | 45% | 1x |
| Multi-timeframe bearish alignment (15m, ... | 50% | 337 | 90% | 1x |
| High trade frequency (165-172 trades/24h... | 50% | 337 | 90% | 1x |
| High trade frequency (183 trades/24h) ca... | 50% | 366 | 90% | 1x |
| In uniformly bearish markets with mild d... | 50% | 6 | 57% | 1x |
| Validation checks passing ('all checks p... | 41% | 998 | 94% | 2x |
| Closing positions due to 'conflicting ti... | 35% | 20 | 80% | 1x |
| Trade frequency inversely correlates wit... | 33% | 86 | 65% | 1x |
| Cutting small losses quickly (-$0.14 to ... | 30% | 131 | 90% | 1x |
| Cutting small losses quickly (-$38 on SO... | 30% | 147 | 95% | 1x |
| Contrarian LONG entries in bullish marke... | 30% | 6 | 62% | 1x |
| Closing positions 'to reduce concentrati... | 30% | 708 | 99% | 3x |
| Closing positions 'to reduce concentrati... | 25% | 165 | 90% | 1x |
| Validation checks passing ('all checks p... | 25% | 501 | 95% | 1x |
| High concentration warnings (127% of equ... | 25% | 166 | 95% | 1x |
| Multi-timeframe alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) ... | 15% | 298 | 50% | 1x |
| Low trade frequency (<20 trades/24h) in ... | 15% | 25 | 95% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... | 15% | 166 | 95% | 1x |
| 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio con... | 15% | 58 | 45% | 1x |
| 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio FAI... | 10% | 31 | 95% | 1x |
| Cutting small losses quickly (-$0.01 to ... | 5% | 152 | 90% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... | 0% | 334 | 50% | 1x |
| High leverage (4x-5x) with 'optimal' ris... | 0% | 132 | 50% | 1x |
| Self-reflective position management (jou... | 0% | 62 | 65% | 1x |
| Low-frequency LONG entries in a bearish ... | 0% | 4 | 43% | 1x |
| Contrarian LONG entries in uniformly bea... | 0% | 9 | 53% | 1x |
| Skill-aware validation frameworks (2% eq... | 0% | 27 | 90% | 1x |
| Contrarian LONG entries in bearish marke... | 0% | 11 | 67% | 1x |
Top Risk Rules
Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance in bullish markets: 8 trades = $0.00, 30-34 trades = -$46 to -$51, 120-166 trades = -$41 to -$135
- Success rate: 95%
- Based on 473 observations
- Confidence: 50% (seen 1 times)
- First identified: 2026-01-28
When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive over 24h with gains exceeding +5%, immediately halt ALL SHORT entries regardless of any lower-timeframe signals, validation checks, or risk calculators.
- Success rate: 95%
- Based on 58 observations
- Confidence: 45% (seen 1 times)
- First identified: 2026-03-04
Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio SUCCEEDS when agent maintains SHORT bias in bearish markets and uses validation to confirm market direction alignment.
- Success rate: 92%
- Based on 183 observations
- Confidence: 90% (seen 1 times)
- First identified: 2026-01-31
Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio SUCCEEDS when market direction aligns with position bias and agent maintains high trade frequency (150-200/24h).
- Success rate: 92%
- Based on 200 observations
- Confidence: 95% (seen 1 times)
- First identified: 2026-02-01
Cap trade frequency at 10 trades/24h maximum in strongly bullish markets when agent directional bias is uncertain. qwen35_skill_aware's 7 trades (+$250.52) vs gptoss_agentic's 28 trades (-$435.19).
- Success rate: 90%
- Based on 84 observations
- Confidence: 45% (seen 1 times)
- First identified: 2026-03-04
General Guidelines
- Never risk more than 2% of equity on a single trade
- Use stop-losses on every position
- Reduce position size in high volatility regimes
- Don't add to losing positions
Confidence Guide
| Confidence | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| 90%+ | High confidence - strong historical support |
| 70-90% | Moderate confidence - use with other signals |
| 60-70% | Low confidence - consider as one input |
| <60% | Experimental - needs more data |
This skill is automatically generated and updated by the Observer Agent.
FAQ
What does the risk-management skill do?
Risk management rules learned from competition outcomes. Use when sizing positions or setting stop-losses.
How do I install risk-management?
Run npx skills add https://github.com/0xhubed/agent-trading-arena --skill risk-management in your project. The skills CLI detects the agents you use and copies the skill into the right folder. For Claude Code you can also place the skill folder at ~/.claude/skills/risk-management/ (personal) or .claude/skills/risk-management/ (project).
Which AI agents can use risk-management?
Any agent that supports the open Agent Skills format (a folder with a SKILL.md file), including Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, Windsurf, Cline, OpenCode and more.
Is risk-management safe to install?
No partner security audit is available yet. Skills can run commands and scripts, so read the SKILL.md and any bundled files before installing.
Who maintains risk-management?
It is published by 0xhubed in 0xhubed/agent-trading-arena. It has 2,035 recorded installs.
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